Expert Opinion Split On Whether TWA's Fortunes Are Linked To MidAmerica Airport
Some Admire Pan Am, But Future Uncertain
Mascoutah, IL (October 23, 2000) -- Airline industry analysts had mixed opinions on whether a
failure of Trans World Airlines, which controls over two-thirds of the operations at Lambert
Airport, could harm MidAmerica St. Louis Airport's chances of attracting other carriers.
TWA, which has lost money for the past II years, released its third quarter earnings report Thursday, which showed improvement in the airline's financial condition but also revealed the carrier lost $11 million in the last year. One industry analyst, Doug Abbey of the Washington aviation research and consulting firm Avstat, said he and others have expected the airline to go under for years, and that its survival "defies logic."
Aaron Gellman, a professor at the Northwestern University Transportation Center, said there is a strong link between the futures of MidAmerica Airport and TWA.
"The fate of MidAmerica is very much tied with the fate of TWA — I don't think there's any question about that," Gellman said. "Lambert is very stressed — it's congestion (there) that could make MidAmerica fly."
Tom Yencho, the public relations manager at Airports Council International in Washington, said Lambert is not the only stressed airport in the nation. According to Yencho, 650 million passengers will use North American airports this year, a figure he expects to rise to 1 billion by 2011.
"[Airport] capacity is a big issue in aviation today," he said. "If we can't accommodate the traffic we already have today, there's noway we can accommodate what we'll have 10 years down the road." But Michael Boyd, the president of The Boyd Group, a Denver-based aviation research and consulting firm, dismisses the idea that TWA and MidAmerica's futures are linked.
"That was the reason they used for spending all that money building that boondoggle," Boyd said. "The planning was faulty, and a lot of the planning was political."
Boyd also dismissed the notion of an airport capacity problem plaguing America's airports. "It's badly overrated," he said.
"If TWA fails, I wouldn't imagine MidAmerica's state would change one iota," Abbey said. "Somebody will step into the void [if TWA goes under]."
Both Boyd and Abbey point to Lambert's advantageous position in the Midwest, shorter distance to the St. Louis business and population base than MidAmerica, and the natural desire of established carriers, most of whom fly to Lambert, to operate at established airports. "Anyone interested in serving the St. Louis market would likely go to Lambert first," Abbey said.
County and airport officials have said previously that they hope to develop MidAmerica Airport as both a reliever airport to Lambert for passenger and cargo flights, and as a commercial service airport. Yencho said that the same kind of desire for MidAmerica Airport to become a reliever airport for Lambert helped to make Dulles airport successful near Washington, D.C. Still, Yencho said it will take a while for the airport to succeed as a commercial service facility.
"I think it might take a while for Pan Am and what they can offer to catch on — it's just a question of when," he said. "The opportunities are there."
Boyd was far more skeptical about Pan Am's prospects for success. "I applaud them for trying
something innovative — I think they've got a tough row to hoe," he said. He mentioned Pan Am's recent decision to start service from Gary, Ind., to Allentown, Pa., as an example of his concern about the airline's strategy.
"There's no traffic in Gary and Allentown — unless you're carrying coal. There's not much traffic back and forth."
Abbey agreed with Boyd, saying his hopes for the airline are not high, and said he does not think the county should have spent as much as it did building MidAmerica Airport.
"Build it and they will come hasn't really proven to be the case at this point," he said. "I would be surprised if it ever is very successful as a commercial airport."
Information provided by the Belleville News-Democrat
David Van Den Berg Article © Belleville News-Democrat
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